According to ITFacts.biz:

Accenture says TV ad revenues will grow about 3% annually through 2009. 40% of US homes will have digital video recorders by 2009. About 8% have DVRs now. The analysis concludes that consumers will skip about 22% of all TV ads in five years, versus 2% currently.

Seems Awful conservative to me. I would have to imagine that almost every cable and satellite provider will offer DVRs as part of their basic service by then. What do you think?